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From : endlessmountain
Added: Sep 11, 2009
Week 1 NFL Investment Ideas Note: Like the stock market or playing blackjack, you need to win at least 52.3% from books with -110 lines to break even. Any worse and you will be a loser. Any better then you will be a successful investor (pending inflation). I will not be making any point spread plays for at least the first few weeks of the season. The end of the season has always been historically better as there is more data to choose from. One may say that the books have that info also, which is true. However you can also get a better read for what the books are trying to do later on also. Finding out what the books are trying to do is like trying to figure out what the power that be in the market are trying to do when the fix the stock market to the direction they desire. Therefore, quick look at all games (all plays are opinion outside of top 3): Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 -TENN with the points. This is a little high, and even though I expect Tennessee to not do as good, I expect the same with PITT. Granted falling from the best means you are still a great team and I think that could hold true. Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons -4.5 MIA - Too many points. Both teams are on the rise to do a lot better Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 TB - TB was great at home last year and im a sucker for home underdogs of three or greater. Dallas are not what they were. Watch Roy Williams New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions +13.5 -DET (SILVER) It is clear that Detroit is the weaker team. However, usually these bad teams do get better. Whether it is better to 5-11 would be an other question. I also like the revenge factor on how many players on Detroit will play to win at 0-0 Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars+7.5 JAX - Im a sucker for the Jags against the Colts every time I see them. They match up well against them. New York Jets @ Houston Texans -4.5 HOU - Jets looking to get worse and Texans may compete for playoffs this year with Johnson. This is my #4 pick of the week. Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns +3.5 CLE - Love home dogs and I have not watched the qbs in preseason for CLE, so that is why I keep it at opinion. Favre is in a new system, but a top veteran of all time. Watch the QBs performance for future weeks. Kansas City Chiefs@ Baltimore Ravens -12.5 KC - If Thigpen starts I love it. Baltimore is a team that is very good at winning. That means a 12.5 spread for a team that wins a lot by 3-10 is huge. BAL offense is not that spectacular as they win with defense. Watch the announcers as they hype up Cassels talent. Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers +1.5 CAR - I am not sold on Philly as of yet being a top team. I am not sold on Carolina falling like Vegas expects yet. Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 DEN - Denver may have a terrible defense, however they have a lot of talent at all OFF positions excluding the quarterback. Watch to see if Orton can manage the game. This one should not be higher than 3 for the Bengals. Washington Redskins @ New York Giants-6.5 NYG - More of a gut play (my rare ones.) Watch to see if Washington does worse than expected this season. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals -6.5 SF - This was the game I circled when the schedule came out. I thought this was going to be my gold play taking over ten. Watch for Arizona to do poorly as all former superbowl losers historically lose the following since Atlanta lost to Denver (Tennessee was an exception) St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks -8.5 SEA - Rams might be the worst team in a long time. Worse than the 0-16 Lions? I also see Seattle on the rise with Who's Your Momma! Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -3.5 CHI (GOLD) I am not sold at all about Ryan Grant and Chicago should be able to contain this offense. I am not sold on Rodgers being anything other than solid. I am sold on Cutler being better than solid and the 3rd year is usually the biggest and he looked good in preseason. Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -10.5 BUF (Bronze) Watch out for this Bills roster. Owens is a huge addition to the team with Lee Evans whom is maturing nicely. Jackson ran well last season and their "D" is fine. New England I feel is overrated based on how the money has flown in from investors for superbowl winners. San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders +9.5 OAK - McFadden going into his 2nd year and Russell in his 3rd. Watch these two this season as it is up to them to go further up the rung from the bottom level.
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